Middle East Kev tsis sib haum xeeb ua rau ntiaj teb kev lag luam txawv teb chaws: Shipping Paralysis, Skyrocketing nqi, Thiab Plunging Orders
Txij thaum Lub Peb Hlis 30 txog rau 31 lub sijhawm hauv cheeb tsam, kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm US -Israel alliance thiab Iran txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv, ua rau ob qho kev thaiv nyob rau hauv Strait of Hormuz thiab txoj kab ntawm Hiav Txwv Liab. Cov saw hlau thoob ntiaj teb tau raug kev txom nyem "cov saw hlau- tawg" kev poob siab, ua rau kev lag luam txawv teb chaws poob rau hauv qhov teeb meem peb zaug ntawm kev nce nqi thauj khoom, ncua sij hawm, thiab poob xaj-nrog Suav cov lag luam xa tawm cuam tshuam.
I. Sib tsoo ntawm cov hlab ntsha loj Shipping: Freight Surges, Teem caij qeeb, thiab Cargo Backlogs
Full Route Diversion: Ntiaj teb no saum toj kawg nkaus shipping kab suav nrog Maersk, MSC, thiab COSCO Shipping tau ncua kev hla hiav txwv liab thiab Persian Gulf. Cov nkoj raug yuam kom taug kev ncig lub Cape of Good Hope, txuas ntxiv voyages los ntawm 10-14 hnub thiab nce kev thauj mus los ntawm 3,500-4,000 nautical mais, uas ua rau 15% poob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb shipping peev.
Freight thiab Insurance Premiums Skyrocket: 20-foot container freight rates have surged by 20%–50%, with war risk surcharges tshaj $3,000 ib lub thawv. Ib leeg-voyage kev pov hwm kev tuav pov hwm them nqi mus txog $ 500,000- $ 1,000,000, thawb tag nrho cov nqi thauj khoom nce mus txog 30%-60%.
Loj Cargo Backlogs: Ntau tshaj 200 lub nkoj thauj khoom tau tso tseg hauv Gulf of Oman thiab Persian Gulf. Cuaj lub thawv los ntawm Keqiao, Shaoxing, tau ncua sij hawm ntev tshaj 20 hnub, nrog rau cov nqi thauj khoom quadrupling. Qee qhov kev txiav txim Iranian tau raug tso tseg tam sim ntawd, nthuav tawm cov lag luam ua txhaum loj heev - ntawm - kev pheej hmoo ntawm daim ntawv cog lus.
II. Tsis muaj kev tswj hwm lub zog thiab cov khoom siv raw cov nqi: hla-- Pawg Thawj Coj nce hauv cov nqi tsim khoom
Crude Roj thiab Tshuaj: Brent crude roj tau tawg los ntawm $ 108.65 ib chim. Nyob ib ncig ntawm 7 lab barrels ib hnub ntawm Middle Eastern roj ntau lawm yog cuam tshuam, nrog Iraq yuam kom txiav tawm los ntawm 1.5 lab barrels ib hnub twg 新华网. Kev lag luam tshuaj fiber ntau tso siab rau cov roj av rau 90% ntawm nws cov nqi; grey npuag nqi tau nce los ntawm 1.8 yuan ib 'meter' thiab dyeing nqi los ntawm 0.5 yuan ib 'meter' nyob rau hauv ob lub lis piam, nrog rau tej fabrics nce 3 yuan ib 'meter' nyob rau hauv ib lub lis piam. Cov tuam txhab textile cov paj tau paj tag nrho tau poob los ntawm 5% -15%, nrog rau cov chaw me me thiab nruab nrab- cov chaw tsim khoom loj ntsib kev poob sai li sai tau thaum lawv lees txais xaj.
Cov chiv thiab zaub mov: Kev cuam tshuam hauv Strait ntawm Hormuz tau cuam tshuam loj rau kev thauj mus los ntawm cov chiv, thawb cov nqi chiv thoob ntiaj teb. US urea benchmark tus nqi tau nce ze li ntawm 25% rau $ 578 ib tuj nyob rau lub Peb Hlis thaum ntxov, nce nqi kev tsim khoom ua liaj ua teb thiab ua rau muaj kev hem thawj ntxiv rau cov nqi khoom noj thoob ntiaj teb.
III. Txawv Teb Chaws Trade Orders Plunge: Export Enterprises ntsib ciaj sia taus Crisis
Order Cancellations thiab Reductions: Cov neeg yuav khoom nyob sab Europe thiab Asmeskas tau ncua lossis tshem tawm cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm Middle East txoj kev. Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Chamber of Commerce rau Ntshuam thiab Export ntawm Textiles qhia tau hais tias textile thiab apparel export xaj rau lub Plaub Hlis-Lub Rau Hli tau nqis los ntawm 40%–60% xyoo-rau- xyoo. Cov lag luam me thiab nruab nrab-cov lag luam txawv teb chaws loj hauv Zhejiang, Guangdong, thiab Jiangsu tau tshaj tawm tias ntau dua 30% ntawm lawv cov xaj tau ploj lawm, nrog qee qhov kev cuam tshuam ntau lawm.
Kev Them Nyiaj thiab Kev Xa Khoom Risks: Lub sijhawm xa khoom txuas ntxiv thiab cov nqi nce ntxiv tau ua rau muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb txog cov nqe lus them nqi. Ntau tus neeg yuav khoom xav tau tus nqi txo lossis ncua sij hawm them nyiaj, thaum cov neeg xa khoom tawm tsam nrog cov peev nyiaj nruj. Qee lub lag luam yuav tsum tau nqus cov nqi nce lawv tus kheej, ntxiv compressing twb nyias cov nyiaj tau los.
Hla - Ciam Teb E- Kev Lag Luam Nyuaj Siab: Cov platforms zoo li Alibaba International thiab Amazon tau pom qhov poob qis hauv kev txiav txim los ntawm Middle Eastern thiab European kev lag luam. Lub sijhawm thauj khoom tau nce ob npaug, thiab cov neeg siv khoom tsis txaus siab tau nce ntxiv, nrog ntau tus neeg muag khoom ncua kev ua haujlwm hauv cov cheeb tsam siab -.
IV. Kev tsim kho thoob ntiaj teb cov saw hlau khoom siv: Ntev- Lub Sij Hawm Sib Tw Ua Ntej
Cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ceeb toom tias yog tias muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb, cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb yuav raug kho kom rov zoo dua. Cov tuam txhab lag luam tab tom ua kom muaj kev sib txawv ntawm cov saw hlau xa khoom, hloov kev txiav txim mus rau sab hnub tuaj Asia, Mexico, thiab lwm thaj chaw. Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev hloov pauv no yuav siv sijhawm 1-2 xyoos, thiab nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv, kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb yuav nyob twj ywm rau hauv lub xeev muaj kev kub ntxhov thiab tsis paub tseeb.
